توقعات معهد ماستركارد للاقتصاد لعام 2025 لدولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة: التوجيه من خلال التغيير

•   The UAE’s GDP is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year, consumer spending is expected to rise by 4.3% and consumer price inflation is likely to reach 2.3%.
• Migration drives remittances as payments continue to digitize, bringing cost efficiency, security and convenience
• Women's participation in the workforce is increasing, driven by increased employment opportunities in female-dominated sectors and the promotion of flexible working patterns.
•  Consumers are increasingly opting for less expensive products and services, especially in the travel sector.

Dubai, UAE; December 16, 2024 : The Mastercard Institute for Economics has released its annual Economic Outlook 2025, which outlines the themes that will shape the economic landscape in the coming year. According to the report, the global economy has weathered a series of challenges over the past few years.The report expects that fiscal and monetary policy shifts and achieving balanced growth and inflation rates will contribute to shaping the nature of 2025.

The Mastercard Institute report expects the UAE’s GDP to grow by 5% year-on-year in 2025, continuing to outpace global GDP growth, which is expected to reach 3.2%, a slight increase from 3.1% in 2024. Meanwhile, consumer spending in the country is expected to rise by 4.3%, and consumer price inflation is likely to reach 2.3%.

This growth is underpinned by strong non-oil economic activity. In line with the UAE Centennial 2071, a comprehensive vision for the country’s future, economic diversification efforts will continue as the government leverages strong balance sheets to fund infrastructure investment. Private sector investment is also expected to benefit from lower interest rates, supporting employment and domestic consumption. Population growth is an important driver of economic activity in the region, particularly private consumption, even if the pace of growth slows.

Tourism is also expected to remain a key driver of the region’s economies, with the GCC’s strong push to develop its tourism offerings making it one of the fastest growing destinations in the world. In addition, the region’s strong dollar-pegged currencies are also driving demand for outbound travel.

“With public and private investment continuing to drive strong non-oil GDP growth, the GCC region continues to outperform most global markets,” said Khatija Haque, Chief Economist, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, Mastercard. “Following the successes of 2024, the global economy is setting its course for another year of expansion, shaped by shifting fiscal and monetary policies. As the business cycle matures, the structural forces that have transformed the landscape will become clearer, helping to set new rules and trends for economies around the world.”

The most important results included in the report:

Price Priorities: Travel Alternatives and Useful Experiences

As prices for goods and services rise, consumers’ purchasing patterns may change. For essential goods and services that have few substitutes, the quantity purchased is unlikely to decline significantly in response to price increases. However, for those with a range of price levels, we may see prices stabilize towards a lower price through the choice of more affordable alternatives to existing products and experiences. 

In the travel economy, savvy travelers are increasingly choosing “similar destinations,” destinations that offer experiences similar to popular tourist hubs, but at lower prices or in smaller numbers. For example, in Southeast Asia, the stunning beaches and tranquil landscapes of Lombok offer an alternative to the large numbers of visitors in Bali. For travelers from the UAE.

In line with the continued growth of the experience economy over the past few years, the region continues to see a trend of prioritising spending on ‘big moments’ over material things. This trend is particularly prevalent in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, where spending on meaningful experiences has seen significant growth as of February 2024, with spending up 451% and 503% respectively compared to the same period in 2019. The latest data from September 2024 shows an increase of 326% and 279% respectively. This increase is attributed to countries’ focus on expanding their selection of leisure and entertainment facilities, as well as hosting global sporting events that attract large numbers of visitors from all over the world.

Immigration and money

The past few years have seen significant shifts in people’s behavior patterns, which in turn has impacted the capital cycle, with migration significantly enriching the region’s human capital. In the UAE, net migration contributed 10.8% to population growth between 2019 and 2023.

Migration also generates significant remittances, a lifeline for expatriates working in booming economies, such as the UAE, and their families in low- and middle-income communities in developing economies. The report highlighted a World Bank study that global remittances rose from $128 billion in 2000 to $857 billion in 2023, with an estimated 3% growth in 2024 and 2025. Economic recovery and domestic reforms are expected to support remittance growth through 2025, while continued digitization of payments is enabling recipients to shift to digital and mobile channels, leading to significant cost efficiencies, security and convenience.

Growth of the "Women's Economy"

The global economy has seen the “Great Resignation” turn into the “Great Return,” with different countries experiencing, to varying degrees, a return of workers, especially among the younger age group and most notably among women. The latest World Bank data shows that women’s representation in the workforce in the UAE is 55.4%.

There are several possible explanations for this increase. First, women’s labor force participation likely reflects the availability of jobs in female-dominated sectors, such as health care and education. In addition, the spread of telecommuting and flexible work options is helping women, who are often still the primary caregivers, complete their work by making it easier to raise children while working. This trend is expected to continue in 2025, with positive economic effects by driving consumption growth through increased household disposable income.

Global inflation pressures continue to ease

Inflation in all major economies is set to decline sharply in 2024, supported by lower durable goods prices and lower nondurable inflation. While upside risks to durable goods prices remain due to tariffs, slower wage growth is expected to dampen services inflation. The Mastercard Institute for Economics forecasts global inflation to decline to 3.2%.

The 2025 Economic Outlook draws on a large number of public and private data sets, including aggregated and anonymized sales activity, as well as models that aim to estimate economic activity.